Engineering Change Orders and their Impact on DoD Acquisition Contracts

Cost growth is a problem DoD wide. Cost Estimators attempt to remedy this problem by accounting for uncertainty in the estimates they complete. They use tools such as Engineering Change Orders (ECO’s) to account for the uncertainty, by applying a percentage to the final amount estimated. The following research gives the acquisition community a more precise tool to predict whether a DoD Acquisition Contract will have an Engineering Change Order, which can then be used also during programmatic cost estimating, and also a method for predicting the proper amount of ECO to apply when certain variables are present. The study used both logistic and multiple regression to accomplish this. For both types of regression a stepwise approach was adopted for the response. For the Logistic Regression the Y variable was that an ECO was present and the significant predictor variables were: UAV, \u3e500M (dollars), Navy, Army, Aircraft, Firm Fixed Price (FFP), Cost Plus Fixed Fee (CPFF) and \u3c5M \u3e(dollars). The final model was 85% predictive. The multiple regression modeled the expected ECO percent change (less than 100% of baseline). Predictive variables included

Peak phosphorus: Clarifying the key issues of a vigorous debate about long-term phosphorus security

This paper reviews the latest information and perspectives on global phosphorus scarcity. Phosphorus is essential for food production and modern agriculture currently sources phosphorus fertilizers from finite phosphate rock. The 2008 food and phosphate fertilizer price spikes triggered increased concerns regarding the depletion timeline of phosphate rock reserves. While estimates range from 30 to 300 years and are shrouded by lack of publicly available data and substantial uncertainty, there is a general consensus that the quality and accessibility of remaining reserves are decreasing and costs will increase. This paper clarifies common sources of misunderstandings about phosphorus scarcity and identifies areas of consensus. It then asks, despite some persistent uncertainty, what would it take to achieve global phosphorus security? What would a 'hard-landing' response look like and how could preferred 'soft-landing' responses be achieved?© 2011 by the authors

Securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia: implications of global phosphorus scarcity and possible solutions

Food production is fundamentally dependent on inputs of key natural resources, including water, energy and nutrients. Meeting the needs of a growing world population means agricultural fields will need to expand or intensify, either way requiring more fertilisers, including phosphorus (FAO, 2006). Unlike energy and water resources, there is very little discussion, research and policies that addresses long-term availability and accessibility of phosphorus for global food production. Yet the worlds main source of phosphorus phosphate rock is declining in both quantity and quality. Indeed, peak phosphorus is anticipated in the coming decades, after which demand will exceed supp

Review of the National Packaging Covenant

The NSW Nature Conservation Council, with funding from the NSW Department of Environment and Conservation, commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures at the University of Technology, Sydney, to carry out an independent review of the National Packaging Covenant and the National Environmental Protection Measure for Used Packaging Materials (the Covenant systema), in December 2003. This review was intended to evaluate the Covenant system's effectiveness in achieving both its stated objectives and broader environmental and social outcomes, including reduction in generation of packaging waste, specifically reduction in virgin materials used in packaging and a reduction in packaging material disposed to landfill. The National Packaging Covenant (NPC) is a voluntary agreement between industry, the Commonwealth Government, most State Governments and some local governments, to reduce packaging waste. It is supported by a regulatory measure, the National Environmental Protection Measure (NEPM), designed to encourage brand owners to sign the NPC. The NPC came into effect in August 1999 and is due to finish in July 2004. It is currently the subject of three separate reviews, including this one. The principle of a cooperative regulatory framework supported by a regulatory safety net is an appealing one, so there is a strong desire on the part of industry and some government agencies to provide the maximum possible opportunity for the NPC to demonstrate that it has provided benefits. This review has determined that the Covenant system is not an effective instrument for reducing the generation of packaging waste and therefore an alternative policy framework will be needed to achieve this goal. The evaluation is briefly summarised for each of the criteria

Urban water demand forecasting and demand management: Research needs review and recommendations

Urban Water Demand Forecasting and Demand Management - Research Needs Review and Recommendations This study undertook a preliminary investigation of current research into urban water demand. The objective was to conduct a preliminary review of this field, to provide the beginnings of a comprehensive database of industry knowledge in this area and to identify research gaps. It is anticipated that this will lead to a more considered approach to research funding by the Australian water industry and maximise the potential for transparency and collaboratio

Securing a sustainable phosphorus future for Australia

Australia has developed its agricultural export industry on the foundation of importing phosphorus: from Nauru. and more recently through substituting domestic production [or at least half of all demand for fertiliser. Decreasing ore grades for phosphate rock increasing concerns about the negative impact of run-off from soils, and the likelihood of future price increases all mean that a rethink is needed of the future of phosphorus in Australia, and globally. The current path for phosphorus lise in the world and in Australia is not sustainable. due to the significant levels of inefficiency, to the certainty of peak phosphorus in the coming decades and the vulnerability to potentially volatile markets. Moving towards a sustainable phosphorus future can be achieved by reducing our dependence on imported and domestic rock, by diversifying phosphorus sources through investing in renewable phosphorus fertilisers, increasing the efficiency of use throughout the system (not just in agriculture) and maximising recovery and reuse of phosphorus

Landfill Futures: : National Guideline Document

This report looks at the past and present roles of landfills in Australian waste management and considers the requirements for a sustainable future. The research used a test case to apply an integrated resource planning model to waste. The results suggest that disposal to landfill may be an expensive and less preferred option compared to others, in many cases, but still have a role to play in specific contexts where the costs of other options are higher

Detection of human papillomavirus DNA in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded squamous papillomas of the oral cavity

Squamous papillomas are exophytic proliferations of surface oral epithelium. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is widely accepted as the etiology of squamous papillomas however the virus cannot be detected in a significant percentage of lesions. Using polymerase chain reaction (PCR), we tested 35 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) squamous papillomas for the presence of HPV DNA. Six papillomas (17%) tested positive for HPV DNA; four contained HPV-6 and two contained HPV-11. Given that ??globin DNA was only identified in half of the samples, DNA degradation appears to have significantly impacted the results. The results likely represent an underestimation of the true number of HPV-positive specimens in our study. Potential explanations for HPV-negative squamous papillomas include transient HPV infection, failure of the experiment to detect HPV if present, or the possibility that some lesions may not result from HPV infection

Shoreline armoring disrupts marine-terrestrial connectivity in the Salish Sea, with consequences for invertebrates, fish, and birds

Within the marine-terrestrial ecotone, upper intertidal “wrack zones” accumulate organic debris from algae, seagrass, and terrestrial plant sources and provide food and shelter for many organisms. We conducted detailed surveys of wrack and log accumulations and supralittoral invertebrates in spring and fall over 3 years at 29 armored-unarmored beach pairs in Puget Sound, WA, USA. Additionally, behavioral observations of juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and birds were conducted at 6 pairs. Armored beaches had substantially less wrack overall, a lower proportion of terrestrial plant material in the wrack, and far fewer logs. Armored beaches had significantly fewer invertebrates and differed from unarmored beaches in their taxonomic composition. Unarmored invertebrate assemblages were dominated by talitrid amphipods and insects, and were correlated with the amount of beach wrack and logs, the proportion of terrestrial material in wrack, and the maximum elevation of the beach. Shoreline armoring influenced juvenile salmon distribution, with fewer overall observations and fish in deeper water at armored beaches, but their feeding rates were relatively high at all sites. Terrestrial birds were commonly observed foraging among beach wrack and logs at unarmored beaches, but were largely absent from armored beaches. This study demonstrates that shoreline armoring disrupts marine-terrestrial connectivity, affecting the amount and type of organic material delivered to the nearshore ecotone in the form of wrack and logs, the abundance and taxonomic composition of supralittoral invertebrates, and the distribution and behavior of secondary consumers (juvenile salmon and birds)